{"_license": "Reuse with attribution is welcome; copying the work is not. Data (/api/**.json): CC BY 4.0. Charts, share images, embeds and quotes: free to reuse when credited \"History of Market (historyofmarket.com)\" with a link. No derivative or look-alike sites, no use of the brand names, no citation without the source. Terms: https://historyofmarket.com/license/", "_attribution": "History of Market (historyofmarket.com)", "_canonical": "https://historyofmarket.com/api/aiae.json", "_terms": "https://historyofmarket.com/license/", "updated": "2026-10-03", "label": "AIAE - Aggregate Investor Allocation to Equities", "source": "FRED Z.1 Financial Accounts of US — historical seed under Philosophical Economics 5-borrower decomposition; post-seed quarters computed from NCBEILQ027S (Nonfin Corp Equity Liab) + TCMDO (All-sector debt outstanding) calibrated to seed level.", "formula": "Historical (1945–seed): Equity MV / (Equity MV + Sum of 5 Borrower Liabilities) from the Philosophical Economics PhilEcon decomposition. Post-seed quarters (live refresh): NCBEILQ027S / (NCBEILQ027S + TCMDO) calibrated to the seed level using a multiplicative factor anchored at the most recent shared quarter (TCMDO ≠ PhilEcon's 5-borrower sum by ~1–7pp; calibration restores level continuity).", "methodology": "Seed values are preserved verbatim. New quarters are computed from FRED Z.1 (NCBEILQ027S, TCMDO) and rescaled by a constant factor so the level remains continuous with the curated seed. A 15pp sanity gate aborts the refresh on any FRED schema change or unit re-statement. The implied-10y forecast and subsequent-10y realised fields baked into the seed are never recomputed.", "summary": {"latest_date": "2026-04-01", "latest_aiae": 0.513559, "latest_implied_10y_forecast": null, "historical_mean": 0.319872, "historical_min": 0.200831, "historical_max": 0.513559, "historical_percentile": 100.0, "current_10y_yield": 0.0524, "implied_equity_risk_premium": -0.079773, "regression": {"alpha": 0.265417, "beta": -0.62344, "n_obs": 265, "note": "subsequent_10y_ann = alpha + beta * AIAE (全样本 OLS)"}, "release_lag_weeks": 10, "freq": "quarterly"}, "series": [{"date": "1945-10-01", "aiae": 0.230263, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.097826, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.121862}, {"date": "1946-10-01", "aiae": 0.223647, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.118753, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.125987}, {"date": "1947-10-01", "aiae": 0.212348, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.102822, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.133031}, {"date": "1948-10-01", "aiae": 0.205002, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.119911, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.137611}, {"date": "1949-10-01", "aiae": 0.214861, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.136217, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.131465}, {"date": "1950-10-01", "aiae": 0.23901, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.105798, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.116409}, {"date": "1951-10-01", "aiae": 0.258432, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.115798, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.104301}, {"date": "1952-01-01", "aiae": 0.259549, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.110479, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.103604}, {"date": "1952-04-01", "aiae": 0.263297, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.108354, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.101268}, {"date": "1952-07-01", "aiae": 0.259184, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.086504, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.103832}, {"date": "1952-10-01", "aiae": 0.243281, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.087097, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.113746}, {"date": "1953-01-01", "aiae": 0.235518, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.096373, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.118586}, {"date": "1953-04-01", "aiae": 0.220903, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.109831, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.127698}, {"date": "1953-07-01", "aiae": 0.211549, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.108177, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.133529}, {"date": "1953-10-01", "aiae": 0.228504, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.116713, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.122959}, {"date": "1954-01-01", "aiae": 0.241489, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.114399, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.114864}, {"date": "1954-04-01", "aiae": 0.258195, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.108913, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.104448}, {"date": "1954-07-01", "aiae": 0.276932, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.104165, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.092767}, {"date": "1954-10-01", "aiae": 0.276205, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.103549, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.09322}, {"date": "1955-01-01", "aiae": 0.280838, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.091056, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.090332}, {"date": "1955-04-01", "aiae": 0.299754, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.089081, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.078539}, {"date": "1955-07-01", "aiae": 0.310585, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.069549, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.071786}, {"date": "1955-10-01", "aiae": 0.309457, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.081189, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.07249}, {"date": "1956-01-01", "aiae": 0.32222, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.078015, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.064533}, {"date": "1956-04-01", "aiae": 0.31246, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.065286, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.070617}, {"date": "1956-07-01", "aiae": 0.305273, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.054039, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.075098}, {"date": "1956-10-01", "aiae": 0.320312, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.058132, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.065722}, {"date": "1957-01-01", "aiae": 0.305154, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.068333, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.075172}, {"date": "1957-04-01", "aiae": 0.319286, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.074701, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.066362}, {"date": "1957-07-01", "aiae": 0.29356, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.070571, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.0824}, {"date": "1957-10-01", "aiae": 0.292135, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.085541, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.083289}, {"date": "1958-01-01", "aiae": 0.302406, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.082626, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.076886}, {"date": "1958-04-01", "aiae": 0.312722, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.084161, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.070454}, {"date": "1958-07-01", "aiae": 0.334504, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.075529, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.056874}, {"date": "1958-10-01", "aiae": 0.339295, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.072554, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.053887}, {"date": "1959-01-01", "aiae": 0.340832, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.063893, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.052929}, {"date": "1959-04-01", "aiae": 0.345961, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.060569, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.049732}, {"date": "1959-07-01", "aiae": 0.337517, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.042595, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.054996}, {"date": "1959-10-01", "aiae": 0.348336, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.053778, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.048251}, {"date": "1960-01-01", "aiae": 0.331434, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.043366, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.058788}, {"date": "1960-04-01", "aiae": 0.33378, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.041335, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.057326}, {"date": "1960-07-01", "aiae": 0.314229, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.034666, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.069515}, {"date": "1960-10-01", "aiae": 0.339588, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.045424, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.053705}, {"date": "1961-01-01", "aiae": 0.364138, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.044932, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.038399}, {"date": "1961-04-01", "aiae": 0.361777, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.047573, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.039871}, {"date": "1961-07-01", "aiae": 0.364692, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.036538, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.038054}, {"date": "1961-10-01", "aiae": 0.368113, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.032224, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.035921}, {"date": "1962-01-01", "aiae": 0.359631, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.042064, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.041209}, {"date": "1962-04-01", "aiae": 0.296685, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.051376, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.080452}, {"date": "1962-07-01", "aiae": 0.305956, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.063119, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.074672}, {"date": "1962-10-01", "aiae": 0.346771, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.070381, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.049227}, {"date": "1963-01-01", "aiae": 0.355736, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.057721, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.043637}, {"date": "1963-04-01", "aiae": 0.362044, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.043616, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.039705}, {"date": "1963-07-01", "aiae": 0.368306, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.045837, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.035801}, {"date": "1963-10-01", "aiae": 0.353458, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.038795, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.045058}, {"date": "1964-01-01", "aiae": 0.364108, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.022852, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.038418}, {"date": "1964-04-01", "aiae": 0.36753, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.012882, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.036285}, {"date": "1964-07-01", "aiae": 0.371685, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.004753, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.033694}, {"date": "1964-10-01", "aiae": 0.374486, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.013734, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.031948}, {"date": "1965-01-01", "aiae": 0.376335, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.012795, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.030795}, {"date": "1965-04-01", "aiae": 0.364006, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.00205, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.038482}, {"date": "1965-07-01", "aiae": 0.381204, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.004032, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.02776}, {"date": "1965-10-01", "aiae": 0.390468, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.003719, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.021984}, {"date": "1966-01-01", "aiae": 0.379635, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.008277, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.028738}, {"date": "1966-04-01", "aiae": 0.365631, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.011052, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.037469}, {"date": "1966-07-01", "aiae": 0.339186, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.021523, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.053955}, {"date": "1966-10-01", "aiae": 0.346192, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.025237, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.049588}, {"date": "1967-01-01", "aiae": 0.373116, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.01652, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.032802}, {"date": "1967-04-01", "aiae": 0.376589, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.004615, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.030637}, {"date": "1967-07-01", "aiae": 0.38534, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.004245, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.025181}, {"date": "1967-10-01", "aiae": 0.38941, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.001034, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.022644}, {"date": "1968-01-01", "aiae": 0.366166, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.00329, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.037135}, {"date": "1968-04-01", "aiae": 0.388611, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.000648, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.023142}, {"date": "1968-07-01", "aiae": 0.383066, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.002968, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.026599}, {"date": "1968-10-01", "aiae": 0.413083, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.010395, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.007885}, {"date": "1969-01-01", "aiae": 0.39801, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.003031, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.017282}, {"date": "1969-04-01", "aiae": 0.386426, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.001877, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.024504}, {"date": "1969-07-01", "aiae": 0.373217, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.012338, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.032739}, {"date": "1969-10-01", "aiae": 0.356715, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.004737, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.043027}, {"date": "1970-01-01", "aiae": 0.343703, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.02991, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.051139}, {"date": "1970-04-01", "aiae": 0.291964, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.026887, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.083395}, {"date": "1970-07-01", "aiae": 0.321689, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.045397, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.064864}, {"date": "1970-10-01", "aiae": 0.340623, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.043524, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.05306}, {"date": "1971-01-01", "aiae": 0.359013, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.030554, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.041594}, {"date": "1971-04-01", "aiae": 0.354696, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.024804, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.044286}, {"date": "1971-07-01", "aiae": 0.345703, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.031962, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.049892}, {"date": "1971-10-01", "aiae": 0.357305, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.026072, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.042659}, {"date": "1972-01-01", "aiae": 0.365438, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.014809, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.037589}, {"date": "1972-04-01", "aiae": 0.361809, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.007861, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.039851}, {"date": "1972-07-01", "aiae": 0.361926, "subsequent_10y_ann": -0.00028, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.039778}, {"date": "1972-10-01", "aiae": 0.389487, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.018265, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.022596}, {"date": "1973-01-01", "aiae": 0.36839, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.02275, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.035748}, {"date": "1973-04-01", "aiae": 0.347027, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.043931, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.049067}, {"date": "1973-07-01", "aiae": 0.354073, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.041527, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.044674}, {"date": "1973-10-01", "aiae": 0.312405, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.042092, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.070652}, {"date": "1974-01-01", "aiae": 0.301739, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.054007, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.077301}, {"date": "1974-04-01", "aiae": 0.280017, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.058893, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.090844}, {"date": "1974-07-01", "aiae": 0.22156, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.06627, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.127288}, {"date": "1974-10-01", "aiae": 0.223773, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.084351, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.125908}, {"date": "1975-01-01", "aiae": 0.257954, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.088429, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.104599}, {"date": "1975-04-01", "aiae": 0.282293, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.074941, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.089425}, {"date": "1975-07-01", "aiae": 0.254071, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.079613, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.107019}, {"date": "1975-10-01", "aiae": 0.26269, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.078638, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.101646}, {"date": "1976-01-01", "aiae": 0.285496, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.077002, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.087428}, {"date": "1976-04-01", "aiae": 0.284186, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.087668, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.088245}, {"date": "1976-07-01", "aiae": 0.28118, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.086037, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.090119}, {"date": "1976-10-01", "aiae": 0.282432, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.090169, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.089338}, {"date": "1977-01-01", "aiae": 0.261603, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.103862, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.102324}, {"date": "1977-04-01", "aiae": 0.261981, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.113464, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.102088}, {"date": "1977-07-01", "aiae": 0.247395, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.124178, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.111182}, {"date": "1977-10-01", "aiae": 0.235978, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.105516, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.118299}, {"date": "1978-01-01", "aiae": 0.220447, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.111589, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.127982}, {"date": "1978-04-01", "aiae": 0.227618, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.104378, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.123511}, {"date": "1978-07-01", "aiae": 0.234912, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.1045, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.118964}, {"date": "1978-10-01", "aiae": 0.221625, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.115931, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.127248}, {"date": "1979-01-01", "aiae": 0.22786, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.115256, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.12336}, {"date": "1979-04-01", "aiae": 0.225241, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.117707, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.124993}, {"date": "1979-07-01", "aiae": 0.23061, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.12796, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.121646}, {"date": "1979-10-01", "aiae": 0.232197, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.128264, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.120657}, {"date": "1980-01-01", "aiae": 0.217553, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.111677, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.129786}, {"date": "1980-04-01", "aiae": 0.235157, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.12023, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.118811}, {"date": "1980-07-01", "aiae": 0.253396, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.113384, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.10744}, {"date": "1980-10-01", "aiae": 0.268135, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.090804, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.098251}, {"date": "1981-01-01", "aiae": 0.264489, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.102563, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.100524}, {"date": "1981-04-01", "aiae": 0.254172, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.10948, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.106957}, {"date": "1981-07-01", "aiae": 0.223336, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.114708, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.126181}, {"date": "1981-10-01", "aiae": 0.231422, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.12404, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.12114}, {"date": "1982-01-01", "aiae": 0.207126, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.13002, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.136287}, {"date": "1982-04-01", "aiae": 0.200831, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.135506, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.140211}, {"date": "1982-07-01", "aiae": 0.211342, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.147581, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.133658}, {"date": "1982-10-01", "aiae": 0.235817, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.120904, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.1184}, {"date": "1983-01-01", "aiae": 0.249469, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.116858, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.109889}, {"date": "1983-04-01", "aiae": 0.267059, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.103484, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.098922}, {"date": "1983-07-01", "aiae": 0.257827, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.106723, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.104678}, {"date": "1983-10-01", "aiae": 0.245294, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.11082, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.112491}, {"date": "1984-01-01", "aiae": 0.226104, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.114145, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.124455}, {"date": "1984-04-01", "aiae": 0.211705, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.109132, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.133432}, {"date": "1984-07-01", "aiae": 0.216138, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.117664, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.130668}, {"date": "1984-10-01", "aiae": 0.212087, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.110177, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.133194}, {"date": "1985-01-01", "aiae": 0.217852, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.101059, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.1296}, {"date": "1985-04-01", "aiae": 0.21967, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.110887, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.128466}, {"date": "1985-07-01", "aiae": 0.204115, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.11402, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.138164}, {"date": "1985-10-01", "aiae": 0.221323, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.118461, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.127436}, {"date": "1986-01-01", "aiae": 0.236324, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.116243, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.118084}, {"date": "1986-04-01", "aiae": 0.239712, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.107558, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.115971}, {"date": "1986-07-01", "aiae": 0.216799, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.104845, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.130256}, {"date": "1986-10-01", "aiae": 0.228549, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.111988, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.122931}, {"date": "1987-01-01", "aiae": 0.259787, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.111126, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.103456}, {"date": "1987-04-01", "aiae": 0.260421, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.107613, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.103061}, {"date": "1987-07-01", "aiae": 0.267123, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.115928, "implied_10y_forecast": 0.098882}, {"date": "1987-10-01", "aiae": 0.216867, "subsequent_10y_ann": 0.13768, "implied_10y_forecast": 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