{"_license": "Reuse with attribution is welcome; copying the work is not. Data (/api/**.json): CC BY 4.0. Charts, share images, embeds and quotes: free to reuse when credited \"History of Market (historyofmarket.com)\" with a link. No derivative or look-alike sites, no use of the brand names, no citation without the source. Terms: https://historyofmarket.com/license/", "_attribution": "History of Market (historyofmarket.com)", "_canonical": "https://historyofmarket.com/api/mag7/predecessors.json", "_terms": "https://historyofmarket.com/license/", "updated": "2026-10-03", "title_cn": "美股「明星组合」的世代", "title_en": "Generations of US Equity 'Superbaskets'", "lede_cn": "Magnificent 7 不是凭空出现的——它是美股市场每过十几年就重新组队一次的「明星组合」最新一代。从 1970 年代的 Nifty Fifty,到 1990 年代的「四骑士」,再到 FANG / FAANG,每一组都经历过一次「不可超越」的崛起,和一次至少 -40% 的回撤。下面是这条传承链。", "lede_en": "The Magnificent 7 didn't arrive from nowhere — it's the latest in a generational cycle of 'superbaskets' that re-form in the US market roughly every fifteen years. From the 1970s Nifty Fifty through the 1990s Four Horsemen to FANG and FAANG, each group has had its 'unbeatable' run and at least one -40% drawdown. The lineage:", "generations": [{"id": "nifty_fifty", "label_cn": "Nifty Fifty", "label_en": "Nifty Fifty", "era": "1971-1973", "peakYear": 1972, "peakWeight": null, "peakNote_cn": "1972 年纽约市机构的「必持名单」,平均 PE 突破 41,远超大盘 20 的中位水平。", "peakNote_en": "Wall Street's 'one-decision' must-own basket of 1972. Average PE crossed 41× while the broader market sat near 20×.", "drawdown_cn": "1973-74 年熊市:平均回撤 -60% 至 -70%;Polaroid 跌 -91%,Avon 跌 -86%。", "drawdown_en": "Through the 1973-74 bear: average drawdown -60% to -70%. Polaroid -91%, Avon -86%.", "fate_cn": "约三分之一在之后的二十年里增长不及 SPX,包括 Kodak、Xerox、Polaroid、Sears。", "fate_en": "Roughly a third underperformed the S&P over the following twenty years — Kodak, Xerox, Polaroid, Sears among them.", "members": ["IBM", "Xerox", "Kodak", "Polaroid", "Avon", "Coca-Cola", "GE", "P&G", "McDonald's", "Disney", "JNJ", "Merck"]}, {"id": "four_horsemen", "label_cn": "四骑士", "label_en": "Four Horsemen of the Internet", "era": "1999-2000", "peakYear": 2000, "peakWeight": null, "peakNote_cn": "1999 年底网络泡沫顶点的「四骑士」,合计市值占 SPX 约 7%。", "peakNote_en": "The 'four horsemen' at the dotcom peak — combined market cap roughly 7% of the S&P 500.", "drawdown_cn": "2000-2002 熊市:CSCO -89%,INTC -82%,MSFT -65%,SUN Microsystems -97%。", "drawdown_en": "Through the 2000-02 bust: CSCO -89%, INTC -82%, MSFT -65%, SUN Microsystems -97%.", "fate_cn": "MSFT 与 ORCL 用了大约十六七年熬过这一轮;CSCO 与 INTC 拖了二十多年才追平 2000 年顶;SUN Microsystems 永远没有回来——2010 年被 Oracle 以 7.4B 美元收购,股票从此消失。", "fate_en": "MSFT and ORCL needed roughly 17 years to climb out of this hole; CSCO and INTC took more than two decades to retake their 2000 highs; SUN Microsystems never recovered at all — Oracle bought it for $7.4B in 2010 and the ticker disappeared.", "members": ["MSFT", "CSCO", "INTC", "ORCL"], "membersStatus": [{"ticker": "MSFT", "peakDate": "1999-12-27", "peakPrice": 59.97, "firstRecoveryDate": "2016-10-24", "yearsToRecovery": 16.8, "currentPrice": 517.53, "currentDate": "2026-10-02", "vsPeakPct": 763.0, "recovered": true}, {"ticker": "CSCO", "peakDate": "2000-03-27", "peakPrice": 80.06, "firstRecoveryDate": "2025-12-10", "yearsToRecovery": 25.7, "currentPrice": 112.2, "currentDate": "2026-10-02", "vsPeakPct": 40.1, "recovered": true}, {"ticker": "INTC", "peakDate": "2000-08-31", "peakPrice": 74.88, "firstRecoveryDate": "2026-04-24", "yearsToRecovery": 25.6, "currentPrice": 119.33, "currentDate": "2026-10-02", "vsPeakPct": 59.4, "recovered": true}, {"ticker": "ORCL", "peakDate": "2000-09-01", "peakPrice": 46.47, "firstRecoveryDate": "2017-06-22", "yearsToRecovery": 16.8, "currentPrice": 142.3, "currentDate": "2026-10-02", "vsPeakPct": 206.2, "recovered": true}]}, {"id": "fang", "label_cn": "FANG", "label_en": "FANG", "era": "2013-2017", "peakYear": 2017, "peakWeight": null, "peakNote_cn": "Cramer 在 2013 年命名;FB / AMZN / NFLX / GOOG 合计 SPX 权重 ~6-7%。", "peakNote_en": "Coined by Jim Cramer in 2013. FB / AMZN / NFLX / GOOG combined for ~6-7% of the S&P 500.", "drawdown_cn": "2018 Q4 调整中 FB 跌 -40%,NFLX 跌 -45%,但很快收复。", "drawdown_en": "Through the Q4 2018 correction: FB -40%, NFLX -45%, both quickly recovered.", "fate_cn": "三家挺过 dot-com 后第二轮考验(2022 熊市)并大幅领涨;NFLX 在 2022 跌 -75% 后翻身。", "fate_en": "Three of four survived the second test (2022 bear) and led on the upside again; NFLX -75% in 2022 before reasserting.", "members": ["FB", "AMZN", "NFLX", "GOOG"]}, {"id": "faang", "label_cn": "FAANG", "label_en": "FAANG", "era": "2017-2021", "peakYear": 2021, "peakWeight": 22.0, "peakNote_cn": "+ AAPL 后扩展为五巨头;2021 年合计约 22% SPX 权重。", "peakNote_en": "FANG + AAPL. Peaked at roughly 22% of the S&P 500 in 2021.", "drawdown_cn": "2022 熊市:AAPL -32%、AMZN -56%、NFLX -75%、META -76%、GOOG -45%。", "drawdown_en": "Through the 2022 bear: AAPL -32%, AMZN -56%, NFLX -75%, META -76%, GOOG -45%.", "fate_cn": "NFLX 在 2022 被踢出后,基本就是今天的 M7 减 NVDA 和 MSFT。", "fate_en": "NFLX was effectively dropped in 2022. What remained is essentially today's M7 minus NVDA and MSFT.", "members": ["FB", "AAPL", "AMZN", "NFLX", "GOOG"]}, {"id": "mag7", "label_cn": "Magnificent 7", "label_en": "Magnificent 7", "era": "2023-now", "peakYear": 2024, "peakWeight": 33.5, "peakNote_cn": "Bank of America 分析师 Michael Hartnett 在 2023 年命名;NFLX 出局、+ NVDA + META + MSFT + TSLA。", "peakNote_en": "Coined by BofA strategist Michael Hartnett in 2023. NFLX dropped from FAANG; NVDA, META, MSFT, TSLA added.", "drawdown_cn": "现役,尚未经历真正的熊市考验;最深一次回撤是 2022,平均 -45% 左右,但当年这组合并不存在。", "drawdown_en": "Still active; has not yet been tested by a true bear market. The deepest cluster drawdown was in 2022 (~-45% average), but the basket as named didn't yet exist.", "fate_cn": "正在书写。集中度史无前例,但盈利能力也史无前例(经营利润占 SPX 比例约 23%)。", "fate_en": "Being written. Concentration is unprecedented — but so is the earnings base (~23% of S&P 500 operating profit).", "members": ["AAPL", "MSFT", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "META", "TSLA"]}], "lesson_cn": "三条共性:(1) 命名总是在峰值前一两年才出现,等到名字流行,泡沫就开始破裂了——参见 2000 年的「四骑士」;(2) 真正的考验是在熊市;只有跨越一次完整的熊市,基础才能算扎实——M7 至今未经历自己组合的真正熊市;(3) 每代里都有一两家挺不过——Nifty Fifty 里的 Polaroid、Kodak 至今没有重生,「四骑士」里 CSCO 与 INTC 用了四分之一个世纪才追平 2000 年顶。", "lesson_en": "Three patterns: (1) The name always arrives a year or two before the peak; by the time it's household vocabulary, the bubble is already cracking — see the 'Four Horsemen' in 2000. (2) The real test is a full bear market; only a basket that survives one is on solid ground — the M7 as named has not yet been through one. (3) Every generation has names that fade — Polaroid and Kodak from the Nifty Fifty never came back, and the Four Horsemen needed a quarter-century of compounding before CSCO and INTC finally retook their 2000 highs."}