{"_license": "Reuse with attribution is welcome; copying the work is not. Data (/api/**.json): CC BY 4.0. Charts, share images, embeds and quotes: free to reuse when credited \"History of Market (historyofmarket.com)\" with a link. No derivative or look-alike sites, no use of the brand names, no citation without the source. Terms: https://historyofmarket.com/license/", "_attribution": "History of Market (historyofmarket.com)", "_canonical": "https://historyofmarket.com/api/ndx/driver-decomp.json", "_terms": "https://historyofmarket.com/license/", "updated": "2026-09-29", "label_cn": "纳指 100 · 估值驱动 vs EPS 驱动 (动态口径)", "label_en": "Nasdaq 100 · Multiple-driven vs Earnings-driven (Forward basis)", "method": "forward", "source": {"pe": "12-month forward consensus P/E, monthly back to 2001", "eps": "Implied forward EPS = year-end price ÷ year-end forward PE", "priceReturn": "^NDX year-end close YoY (daily series)"}, "note_cn": "NDX 每一年的价格回报在这里拆成两块:动态 PE 倍数变化 + 动态 EPS 修正。倍数动了多少,代表市场对明年盈利的定价偏好变了多少;EPS 动了多少,代表分析师对下一年盈利估计上调或下调了多少。两个数字几何相加等于实际价格回报。动态口径——和标普 500 的 TTM 表不能直接对照。", "note_en": "Each year's NDX price return is split into multiple rerating + consensus revision. The rerating tracks how the market's appetite for next year's earnings shifted; the revision tracks how analysts updated those next-year estimates. The two compound to the realised price return. Forward basis — not directly comparable with the S&P table's trailing series.", "summary": {"year_range": "2002–2025", "n_years": 22, "n_pe_driven": 6, "n_eps_driven": 8, "n_both_driven": 1, "n_opposite_pe": 2, "n_opposite_eps": 5, "avg_pe_change": 0.0105, "avg_eps_change": 0.1567}, "series": [{"year": 2002, "priceReturn": -0.3758, "peChange": -0.466, "epsChange": 0.1689, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 27.73, "endingEPS": 35.5}, {"year": 2003, "priceReturn": 0.4912, "peChange": 0.0148, "epsChange": 0.4695, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 28.14, "endingEPS": 52.16}, {"year": 2004, "priceReturn": 0.1044, "peChange": 0.1194, "epsChange": -0.0134, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 31.5, "endingEPS": 51.46}, {"year": 2007, "priceReturn": 0.1867, "peChange": -0.0148, "epsChange": 0.2046, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 21.92, "endingEPS": 95.12}, {"year": 2008, "priceReturn": -0.4189, "peChange": -0.3937, "epsChange": -0.0415, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 13.29, "endingEPS": 91.17}, {"year": 2009, "priceReturn": 0.5354, "peChange": 0.3378, "epsChange": 0.1476, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 17.78, "endingEPS": 104.63}, {"year": 2010, "priceReturn": 0.1922, "peChange": -0.1384, "epsChange": 0.3836, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 15.32, "endingEPS": 144.77}, {"year": 2011, "priceReturn": 0.027, "peChange": -0.2017, "epsChange": 0.2865, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 12.23, "endingEPS": 186.25}, {"year": 2012, "priceReturn": 0.1682, "peChange": 0.0531, "epsChange": 0.1092, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 12.88, "endingEPS": 206.59}, {"year": 2013, "priceReturn": 0.3499, "peChange": 0.3789, "epsChange": -0.021, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 17.76, "endingEPS": 202.25}, {"year": 2014, "priceReturn": 0.1794, "peChange": 0.0, "epsChange": 0.1794, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 17.76, "endingEPS": 238.53}, {"year": 2015, "priceReturn": 0.0843, "peChange": 0.0287, "epsChange": 0.054, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 18.27, "endingEPS": 251.41}, {"year": 2016, "priceReturn": 0.0589, "peChange": -0.0224, "epsChange": 0.0832, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.86, "endingEPS": 272.32}, {"year": 2017, "priceReturn": 0.3152, "peChange": 0.0969, "epsChange": 0.199, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 19.59, "endingEPS": 326.51}, {"year": 2018, "priceReturn": -0.0104, "peChange": -0.1542, "epsChange": 0.17, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 16.57, "endingEPS": 382.01}, {"year": 2019, "priceReturn": 0.3796, "peChange": 0.3247, "epsChange": 0.0415, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 21.95, "endingEPS": 397.86}, {"year": 2020, "priceReturn": 0.4758, "peChange": 0.3112, "epsChange": 0.1256, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 28.78, "endingEPS": 447.82}, {"year": 2021, "priceReturn": 0.2663, "peChange": -0.0146, "epsChange": 0.285, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 28.36, "endingEPS": 575.46}, {"year": 2022, "priceReturn": -0.3297, "peChange": -0.2923, "epsChange": -0.0528, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 20.07, "endingEPS": 545.08}, {"year": 2023, "priceReturn": 0.5381, "peChange": 0.2332, "epsChange": 0.2472, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 24.75, "endingEPS": 679.84}, {"year": 2024, "priceReturn": 0.2488, "peChange": 0.0747, "epsChange": 0.1619, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 26.6, "endingEPS": 789.93}, {"year": 2025, "priceReturn": 0.2017, "peChange": -0.0451, "epsChange": 0.2584, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 25.4, "endingEPS": 994.09}]}