{"_license": "Reuse with attribution is welcome; copying the work is not. Data (/api/**.json): CC BY 4.0. Charts, share images, embeds and quotes: free to reuse when credited \"History of Market (historyofmarket.com)\" with a link. No derivative or look-alike sites, no use of the brand names, no citation without the source. Terms: https://historyofmarket.com/license/", "_attribution": "History of Market (historyofmarket.com)", "_canonical": "https://historyofmarket.com/api/sp500/driver-decomp.json", "_terms": "https://historyofmarket.com/license/", "updated": "2026-09-29", "label_cn": "标普 500 · 估值驱动 vs EPS 驱动 (TTM 口径)", "label_en": "S&P 500 · Multiple-driven vs Earnings-driven (TTM basis)", "method": "trailing", "source": {"pe": "Robert Shiller online data — monthly S&P Composite TTM P/E", "eps": "Robert Shiller online data — quarterly S&P Composite TTM EPS", "priceReturn": "Annual S&P 500 price-return series (1928-)"}, "note_cn": "每一年的价格回报 = PE 倍数变化 + EPS 增长。我们用希勒的月度 TTM PE 与季度 TTM EPS,取每年 12 月底为锚点;价格回报直接复用网站既有的标普 500 年度回报序列(与站内年度回报同口径)。「驱动」标签按 |ΔPE| 与 |ΔEPS| 的比值与符号分四类:估值驱动、EPS 驱动、双轮驱动、对抗。2008-2009 的 EPS 大起大落、2020 疫情、1933 大萧条反弹——历史上的极端年份都体现为对抗或单边驱动。", "note_en": "Each year's price return decomposes into multiple change + EPS growth. We use Shiller's monthly TTM P/E and quarterly TTM EPS, anchored at December year-end; the price return itself comes from the existing site-wide annual-returns dataset. The 'driver' label sorts each year by the relative magnitude and sign of ΔPE and ΔEPS into four buckets: multiple-driven, EPS-driven, both, or fighting. The extreme years — 2008-2009 earnings collapse + bounce, 2020 pandemic, 1933 Depression rebound — show up as either single-sided drives or hard fights.", "summary": {"year_range": "1928–2025", "n_years": 98, "n_pe_driven": 17, "n_eps_driven": 13, "n_both_driven": 5, "n_opposite_pe": 39, "n_opposite_eps": 24, "avg_pe_change": 0.0473, "avg_eps_change": 0.0662}, "series": [{"year": 1928, "priceReturn": 0.3788, "peChange": 0.0668, "epsChange": 0.2582, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 16.78, "endingEPS": 26.95}, {"year": 1929, "priceReturn": -0.1191, "peChange": -0.208, "epsChange": 0.1599, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 13.29, "endingEPS": 31.26}, {"year": 1930, "priceReturn": -0.2848, "peChange": 0.2032, "epsChange": -0.3564, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 15.99, "endingEPS": 20.12}, {"year": 1931, "priceReturn": -0.4707, "peChange": -0.1345, "epsChange": -0.3067, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 13.84, "endingEPS": 13.95}, {"year": 1932, "priceReturn": -0.1478, "peChange": 0.2016, "epsChange": -0.2509, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 16.63, "endingEPS": 10.45}, {"year": 1933, "priceReturn": 0.4408, "peChange": 0.3626, "epsChange": 0.0651, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 22.66, "endingEPS": 11.13}, {"year": 1934, "priceReturn": -0.0471, "peChange": -0.1659, "epsChange": 0.097, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 18.9, "endingEPS": 12.21}, {"year": 1935, "priceReturn": 0.4137, "peChange": -0.0921, "epsChange": 0.5061, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.16, "endingEPS": 18.39}, {"year": 1936, "priceReturn": 0.2792, "peChange": -0.0251, "epsChange": 0.323, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 16.73, "endingEPS": 24.33}, {"year": 1937, "priceReturn": -0.3859, "peChange": -0.4172, "epsChange": 0.0769, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.75, "endingEPS": 26.2}, {"year": 1938, "priceReturn": 0.2455, "peChange": 1.0338, "epsChange": -0.4176, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 19.83, "endingEPS": 15.26}, {"year": 1939, "priceReturn": -0.0518, "peChange": -0.3071, "epsChange": 0.4069, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 13.74, "endingEPS": 21.47}, {"year": 1940, "priceReturn": -0.1509, "peChange": -0.27, "epsChange": 0.1584, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 10.03, "endingEPS": 24.87}, {"year": 1941, "priceReturn": -0.1786, "peChange": -0.2473, "epsChange": 0.0048, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 7.55, "endingEPS": 24.99}, {"year": 1942, "priceReturn": 0.1243, "peChange": 0.2238, "epsChange": -0.1857, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.24, "endingEPS": 20.35}, {"year": 1943, "priceReturn": 0.1945, "peChange": 0.3214, "epsChange": -0.1135, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 12.21, "endingEPS": 18.04}, {"year": 1944, "priceReturn": 0.138, "peChange": 0.154, "epsChange": -0.0327, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.09, "endingEPS": 17.45}, {"year": 1945, "priceReturn": 0.3072, "peChange": 0.2811, "epsChange": 0.0092, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 18.05, "endingEPS": 17.61}, {"year": 1946, "priceReturn": -0.1187, "peChange": -0.2094, "epsChange": -0.0653, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 14.27, "endingEPS": 16.46}, {"year": 1947, "priceReturn": 0.0, "peChange": -0.3455, "epsChange": 0.3955, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 9.34, "endingEPS": 22.97}, {"year": 1948, "priceReturn": -0.0065, "peChange": -0.2901, "epsChange": 0.3814, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 6.63, "endingEPS": 31.73}, {"year": 1949, "priceReturn": 0.1046, "peChange": 0.0754, "epsChange": 0.0347, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 7.13, "endingEPS": 32.83}, {"year": 1950, "priceReturn": 0.2168, "peChange": -0.0252, "epsChange": 0.1553, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 6.95, "endingEPS": 37.93}, {"year": 1951, "priceReturn": 0.1635, "peChange": 0.3799, "epsChange": -0.1893, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.59, "endingEPS": 30.75}, {"year": 1952, "priceReturn": 0.1178, "peChange": 0.1314, "epsChange": -0.0237, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 10.85, "endingEPS": 30.02}, {"year": 1953, "priceReturn": -0.0662, "peChange": -0.0885, "epsChange": 0.038, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.89, "endingEPS": 31.16}, {"year": 1954, "priceReturn": 0.4502, "peChange": 0.276, "epsChange": 0.1117, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 12.62, "endingEPS": 34.64}, {"year": 1955, "priceReturn": 0.264, "peChange": -0.0071, "epsChange": 0.302, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 12.53, "endingEPS": 45.1}, {"year": 1956, "priceReturn": 0.0262, "peChange": 0.087, "epsChange": -0.0851, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 13.62, "endingEPS": 41.26}, {"year": 1957, "priceReturn": -0.1431, "peChange": -0.1211, "epsChange": -0.0397, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 11.97, "endingEPS": 39.62}, {"year": 1958, "priceReturn": 0.3806, "peChange": 0.5464, "epsChange": -0.1572, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 18.51, "endingEPS": 33.39}, {"year": 1959, "priceReturn": 0.0848, "peChange": -0.0589, "epsChange": 0.153, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.42, "endingEPS": 38.5}, {"year": 1960, "priceReturn": -0.0297, "peChange": -0.0029, "epsChange": -0.0483, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 17.37, "endingEPS": 36.64}, {"year": 1961, "priceReturn": 0.2313, "peChange": 0.2948, "epsChange": -0.0308, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 22.49, "endingEPS": 35.51}, {"year": 1962, "priceReturn": -0.1181, "peChange": -0.241, "epsChange": 0.1352, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 17.07, "endingEPS": 40.31}, {"year": 1963, "priceReturn": 0.1889, "peChange": 0.0808, "epsChange": 0.0776, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 18.45, "endingEPS": 43.44}, {"year": 1964, "priceReturn": 0.1297, "peChange": 0.0, "epsChange": 0.1211, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 18.45, "endingEPS": 48.7}, {"year": 1965, "priceReturn": 0.0906, "peChange": -0.0423, "epsChange": 0.1191, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.67, "endingEPS": 54.5}, {"year": 1966, "priceReturn": -0.1309, "peChange": -0.1709, "epsChange": 0.0336, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.65, "endingEPS": 56.33}, {"year": 1967, "priceReturn": 0.2009, "peChange": 0.2205, "epsChange": -0.068, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 17.88, "endingEPS": 52.5}, {"year": 1968, "priceReturn": 0.0766, "peChange": 0.0341, "epsChange": 0.032, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 18.49, "endingEPS": 54.18}, {"year": 1969, "priceReturn": -0.1136, "peChange": -0.1476, "epsChange": -0.0552, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 15.76, "endingEPS": 51.19}, {"year": 1970, "priceReturn": 0.001, "peChange": 0.1136, "epsChange": -0.1592, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.55, "endingEPS": 43.04}, {"year": 1971, "priceReturn": 0.1079, "peChange": -0.0085, "epsChange": 0.076, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 17.4, "endingEPS": 46.31}, {"year": 1972, "priceReturn": 0.1563, "peChange": 0.0517, "epsChange": 0.0892, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 18.3, "endingEPS": 50.44}, {"year": 1973, "priceReturn": -0.1737, "peChange": -0.365, "epsChange": 0.1693, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 11.62, "endingEPS": 58.98}, {"year": 1974, "priceReturn": -0.2972, "peChange": -0.3511, "epsChange": -0.0302, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 7.54, "endingEPS": 57.2}, {"year": 1975, "priceReturn": 0.3155, "peChange": 0.4775, "epsChange": -0.1628, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 11.14, "endingEPS": 47.89}, {"year": 1976, "priceReturn": 0.1915, "peChange": -0.0512, "epsChange": 0.1873, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 10.57, "endingEPS": 56.86}, {"year": 1977, "priceReturn": -0.115, "peChange": -0.1845, "epsChange": 0.0299, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 8.62, "endingEPS": 58.56}, {"year": 1978, "priceReturn": 0.0106, "peChange": -0.0963, "epsChange": 0.0386, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 7.79, "endingEPS": 60.82}, {"year": 1979, "priceReturn": 0.1231, "peChange": -0.0693, "epsChange": 0.0636, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 7.25, "endingEPS": 64.69}, {"year": 1980, "priceReturn": 0.2577, "peChange": 0.2428, "epsChange": -0.1136, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.01, "endingEPS": 57.34}, {"year": 1981, "priceReturn": -0.0973, "peChange": -0.1054, "epsChange": -0.0485, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 8.06, "endingEPS": 54.56}, {"year": 1982, "priceReturn": 0.1476, "peChange": 0.3685, "epsChange": -0.2073, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 11.03, "endingEPS": 43.25}, {"year": 1983, "priceReturn": 0.1727, "peChange": 0.0626, "epsChange": 0.0694, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 11.72, "endingEPS": 46.25}, {"year": 1984, "priceReturn": 0.014, "peChange": -0.1561, "epsChange": 0.141, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 9.89, "endingEPS": 52.77}, {"year": 1985, "priceReturn": 0.2633, "peChange": 0.4348, "epsChange": -0.1543, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.19, "endingEPS": 44.63}, {"year": 1986, "priceReturn": 0.1462, "peChange": 0.21, "epsChange": -0.0195, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 17.17, "endingEPS": 43.76}, {"year": 1987, "priceReturn": 0.0203, "peChange": -0.198, "epsChange": 0.1572, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 13.77, "endingEPS": 50.64}, {"year": 1988, "priceReturn": 0.124, "peChange": -0.1547, "epsChange": 0.2996, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 11.64, "endingEPS": 65.81}, {"year": 1989, "priceReturn": 0.2725, "peChange": 0.3093, "epsChange": -0.0798, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 15.24, "endingEPS": 60.56}, {"year": 1990, "priceReturn": -0.0656, "peChange": 0.0112, "epsChange": -0.1205, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 15.41, "endingEPS": 53.26}, {"year": 1991, "priceReturn": 0.2631, "peChange": 0.5788, "epsChange": -0.2739, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 24.33, "endingEPS": 38.67}, {"year": 1992, "priceReturn": 0.0446, "peChange": -0.0621, "epsChange": 0.1616, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 22.82, "endingEPS": 44.92}, {"year": 1993, "priceReturn": 0.0706, "peChange": -0.067, "epsChange": 0.116, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 21.29, "endingEPS": 50.13}, {"year": 1994, "priceReturn": -0.0154, "peChange": -0.3011, "epsChange": 0.3617, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 14.88, "endingEPS": 68.26}, {"year": 1995, "priceReturn": 0.3411, "peChange": 0.2164, "epsChange": 0.0823, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 18.1, "endingEPS": 73.88}, {"year": 1996, "priceReturn": 0.2026, "peChange": 0.0602, "epsChange": 0.1037, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 19.19, "endingEPS": 81.54}, {"year": 1997, "priceReturn": 0.3101, "peChange": 0.2626, "epsChange": 0.0085, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 24.23, "endingEPS": 82.23}, {"year": 1998, "priceReturn": 0.2667, "peChange": 0.3025, "epsChange": -0.0657, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 31.56, "endingEPS": 76.83}, {"year": 1999, "priceReturn": 0.1953, "peChange": -0.0602, "epsChange": 0.2439, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 29.66, "endingEPS": 95.57}, {"year": 2000, "priceReturn": -0.1014, "peChange": -0.1025, "epsChange": 0.004, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 26.62, "endingEPS": 95.95}, {"year": 2001, "priceReturn": -0.1304, "peChange": 0.7419, "epsChange": -0.5137, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 46.37, "endingEPS": 46.66}, {"year": 2002, "priceReturn": -0.2337, "peChange": -0.2972, "epsChange": 0.0915, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 32.59, "endingEPS": 50.93}, {"year": 2003, "priceReturn": 0.2638, "peChange": -0.3197, "epsChange": 0.7339, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 22.17, "endingEPS": 88.31}, {"year": 2004, "priceReturn": 0.0899, "peChange": -0.0762, "epsChange": 0.1634, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 20.48, "endingEPS": 102.74}, {"year": 2005, "priceReturn": 0.03, "peChange": -0.1177, "epsChange": 0.1532, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 18.07, "endingEPS": 118.48}, {"year": 2006, "priceReturn": 0.1362, "peChange": -0.0382, "epsChange": 0.1383, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 17.38, "endingEPS": 134.87}, {"year": 2007, "priceReturn": 0.0353, "peChange": 0.286, "epsChange": -0.2198, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 22.35, "endingEPS": 105.22}, {"year": 2008, "priceReturn": -0.3849, "peChange": 1.6389, "epsChange": -0.7754, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 58.98, "endingEPS": 23.63}, {"year": 2009, "priceReturn": 0.2345, "peChange": -0.6307, "epsChange": 2.3352, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 21.78, "endingEPS": 78.81}, {"year": 2010, "priceReturn": 0.1278, "peChange": -0.2631, "epsChange": 0.4952, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 16.05, "endingEPS": 117.84}, {"year": 2011, "priceReturn": -0.0, "peChange": -0.109, "epsChange": 0.0918, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 14.3, "endingEPS": 128.66}, {"year": 2012, "priceReturn": 0.1341, "peChange": 0.1497, "epsChange": -0.0222, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 16.44, "endingEPS": 125.81}, {"year": 2013, "priceReturn": 0.296, "peChange": 0.0973, "epsChange": 0.1412, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 18.04, "endingEPS": 143.57}, {"year": 2014, "priceReturn": 0.1139, "peChange": 0.1131, "epsChange": 0.0134, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 20.08, "endingEPS": 145.49}, {"year": 2015, "priceReturn": -0.0073, "peChange": 0.1823, "epsChange": -0.1604, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 23.74, "endingEPS": 122.16}, {"year": 2016, "priceReturn": 0.0954, "peChange": 0.0008, "epsChange": 0.0705, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 23.76, "endingEPS": 130.77}, {"year": 2017, "priceReturn": 0.1942, "peChange": 0.0206, "epsChange": 0.1381, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 24.25, "endingEPS": 148.83}, {"year": 2018, "priceReturn": -0.0624, "peChange": -0.2004, "epsChange": 0.1823, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 19.39, "endingEPS": 175.96}, {"year": 2019, "priceReturn": 0.2888, "peChange": 0.1748, "epsChange": 0.0299, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 22.78, "endingEPS": 181.23}, {"year": 2020, "priceReturn": 0.1626, "peChange": 0.7234, "epsChange": -0.3342, "driver": "opposite_pe", "endingPE": 39.26, "endingEPS": 120.67}, {"year": 2021, "priceReturn": 0.2689, "peChange": -0.3981, "epsChange": 0.964, "driver": "opposite_eps", "endingPE": 23.63, "endingEPS": 236.99}, {"year": 2022, "priceReturn": -0.1944, "peChange": -0.0415, "epsChange": -0.1799, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 22.65, "endingEPS": 194.36}, {"year": 2023, "priceReturn": 0.2423, "peChange": 0.0751, "epsChange": 0.0778, "driver": "both", "endingPE": 24.35, "endingEPS": 209.48}, {"year": 2024, "priceReturn": 0.2331, "peChange": 0.1745, "epsChange": 0.0615, "driver": "pe", "endingPE": 28.6, "endingEPS": 222.37}, {"year": 2025, "priceReturn": 0.1639, "peChange": 0.0227, "epsChange": 0.1151, "driver": "eps", "endingPE": 29.25, "endingEPS": 247.96}]}